A while back one of my students, “Frank,” a real smarty-pants, started babbling about something called Bayes’ theorem. He wrote a long, dense paper about the theorem’s revelatory power, which had ...

Rev. Thomas Bayes (1702-1761), an English clergyman, is credited as the author of “An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances.” Published posthumously in 1763, the paper set out ...

Humans are predication machines. Every second of every day, we are trying to navigate the world based on our predictions. We are making predictions when we book a holiday, based on our prior knowledge ...

In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined. ~ Nate Silver If the ...

[url=http://arstechnica.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=24649285#p24649285:3j46jg05 said: l8gravely[/url]":3j46jg05]The article was nice, but boy would I have appreciated ...

Users can use the applet to apply Bayes' theorem to find the probability that a person is actually infected given that the person has tested positive for a disease. The link provides a detailed ...